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ENI's Academy Award Predictions - Part 2
Reported by Kristen - 10:03 AM 2010.03.04
 Academy Awards nominations are out and it seems I was all over the board in terms of correct and incorrect assumptions. This time we’ll be predicting who will be taking home that golden statue on March 7th. In this installment we’ll be looking at who has a shot of winning out of the nominees, how many of those were predicted here first, personal picks and a final winner. Be sure to come back on March 7th and see how well or poor ENI did in predicting. Here is ENI’s Oscar Predictions Part 2. Best Original Screenplay The Nominees Are: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up Starting off the predictions we predicted four of the five winners in this category, unfortunately I have yet to see The Messenger and didn’t think of it for this category. With that who should take home the prize. Really with the nominees all the predictions are severely narrowed and the only ones with a shot here are The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. As much as Tarantino is respected in the field his film hasn’t been recognized for the writing in the various smaller award ceremonies and the Writer’s Guild Awards didn’t recognize him, giving it to The Hurt Locker. On that note, Mark Boal’s script has won a slew of the smaller awards, including the coveted Critics Choice award. With its nomination for the Best Picture being hotly debated I think it’s secure in at least winning this category, a good indicator of its success or failure at gaining Best Picture. Place Your Bets On: The Hurt Locker Best Adapted Screenplay The Nominees Are: District 9, An Education, In the Loop, Precious, Up in the Air In this category only three were guessed correctly in Part 1, four if you choose to count District 9 in the alternate category. Critics everywhere are saying this is pretty cut and dry on who is winning this: Up in the Air! While Nick Hornby is a darling for his writing, along with Precious, a lot of the steam associated with the movie has dissipated. At this point everything else is small when compared to Up in the Air, especially with District 9 and Reitman’s film fighting it out in the Best Picture category. Place Your Bets On: Up in the Air Supporting Actor The Nominees Are: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) This category was accurately predicted and it’s another category that’s pretty sewn up on the outside but there’s room for an upset in this category especially! One would say Christoph Waltz will be walking away with the award, considering he’s swept nearly all the past awards and won the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild, heavy hitters when it comes to predicting Academy winners. The problem is will the voters pull the “veteran” card, giving the award to an older actor whose never won or been nominated in the past? That brings up the question of whether Plummer or Tucci have a shot. While Tucci’s film was critically panned, he’s never been nominated after years of successful work. Working against him is the fact that critics thought he should have been nominated for his superior role in Julie and Julia. Plummer also has a shot due to his age and the aforementioned never winning or being nominated after several years in the business. Plummer has the slight advantage due to his age (mirroring Peter O’Toole in past years), and the fact his role is based on a real character. The buzz on his movie is pretty nil and hasn’t ramped up but he’s a serious contender. Harrelson seems to have no buzz surrounding his project and Damon is a head-scratcher as many has panned his role in Eastwood’s film. Place Your Bets On: It’s tough but I’m sticking with Waltz! Supporting Actress The Nominees Are: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’Nique (Precious) Maggie Gyllenhaal snuck in this category; upsetting the predictions in Part One but the majority remains! If anything this is the category that is already game, set and match with Mo’Nique, probably on the few wins Precious is going to get. There are rumors of a backlash with the film and it getting left out in the cold but there’s no turning back for Mo’Nique, especially after sweeping all the precursor awards including the SAG and Golden Globes. Gyllenhaal is a late-comer and that could mean something, possible competition but it’s dubious. Kendrick and Farmiga are evenly split, the unfortunate consequences of sticking two leading roles in the category, and the horrible reviews for Nine stick Cruz out entirely. Place Your Bets On: Mo’Nique! (If she doesn’t win I quit!) Best Actor The Nominees Are: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker) Death, taxes, Mo’Nique and Jeff Bridges are probably the only sure things this year! Bridges has been nominated four times and this is his year. Need more proof, he’s already swept the Critic’s Choice, SAG and Golden Globes, the big three needed to prove he’ll win the golden statue. He’s never won and the Academy has probably taken that into consideration clinching his win. If The Hurt Locker takes a turn and starts sweeping categories Renner possibly has a shot but that’s highly unlikely. Clooney and Firth have lost a lot of the luster surrounding their movies and it seems Freeman only got nominated to pad the category, I mean the man DID play Nelson Mandela. Place Your Bets On: Jeff Bridges! Best Actress The Nominees Are: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia) This is tough as critics are highly divided; mainly due to many saying Bullock’s role isn’t good enough to win. Personally her role is very stereotypical and she doesn’t deserve it but the film itself got a Best Picture nod and she secured the major precursor awards including the SAG and Golden Globes. If anything the backlash could allow Meryl Streep to swoop in and score her third statuette after a 25 year hiatus. The critics are slowly joining the Streep bandwagon and it’s truly neck and neck between her and Bullock. Mulligan and Sidibe lost a lot of their luster with their films by this point and will have to consider it an honor to be nominated. Mirren is the lone oddball as there’s no talk of her film and critics are simply calling her nomination a need to pad out the category. Place Your Bets On: This is a divided race and personally I’m saying Streep as an upset. It would be just as safe to say Bullock but I’m sticking to my guns and saying Meryl Streep. Best Director The Nominees Are: James Cameron (Avatar), Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air) It’s the War of the Roses at this year’s Oscars as exes will be battling out for this coveted category; it all comes down to Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron (yes they used to be married). Avatar has become the biggest film in the world and it would be safe to say it’s going to mirror Titanic’s success. A slight hitch though comes in the form of the Director’s Guild Awards, a highly coveted award that is usually pretty good at sniffing out the winner of the Best Directing Oscar…and it didn’t go to Cameron! Bigelow secured the DGA nod and with that her success is pretty much assured. The Academy has never given a female director an Oscar; also a huge boost in her direction and The Hurt Locker has gained a more critical following than Avatar. One can’t discount Cameron though, he did win the Golden Globe, but the DGA nod is pretty crucial for winning this category. Tarantino will have to settle for a Screenplay award while Daniels and Reitman should be happy to be nominated. Place Your Bets On: Bigelow….Cameron is a safe bet but he didn’t win that DGA award and directors are voting Academy members which say something. Best Picture The Nominees Are: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air, District 9, A Serious Man, Up, An Education, The Blind Side Bigelow and Cameron again fighting it out in this category and really Avatar and The Hurt Locker have equal advantages. Yes Avatar is the biggest film in the history of cinema and Cameron is highly respected but The Hurt Locker has come out of nowhere to sweep the DGA, PGA and BFCA. It’s got some heavy clout behind it in the directing and acting categories. The issue is whether the Academy will pull a Brokeback Mountain/Crash and give Best Director to one of the main players and Best Picture to another. If that’s true then Bigelow could win Best Director, leaving Avatar to score Best Picture. Both Avatar and The Hurt Locker are also tied for the most nominations with nine so, again, very tough one to call. Place Your Bets On: It’s difficult and it might stab me in the back later but I’m saying The Hurt Locker! That’s ENI’s predictions for the 2010 Academy Awards….check it on March 7th when the Academy Awards air to see how we did! Also see: ENI's Academy Award Predictions - Part 1 MORE awards NEWS
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